In doing my homework for my trip to the UAE last week, I came across an investment bank's report that concluded that, outside of California, the UAE is the highest potential market for solar in the world.

Part of the rationale comes from the math--PV power runs $0.22/kWh and grid power derived from $100/bbl oil costs north of $0.40/kWh.  Why use your oil to provide heavily subsidized grid power at $0.054/kWh when you can sell it to we Californians as transportation fuel?

Part of the rationale comes from insolation--I measured much higher than I expected.  And part comes from the fact that rapid development growth has outstripped the grid's ability to power these new buildings.

My take away from the trip?

• Solar power is a very feasible option for the UAE.
• They need to start building for a world where energy is expensive--build to LEED Silver, California Title 24 and EPA Greenstar standards, before they look at solar.  Think Negawatts, not Megawatts.
• AC is the critical load--look at geothermal exchange heat pumps [groundwater is ~2m from the surface, temp 20m down should be ~14C] that provide a cooling sink function or absorptive chillers using solar thermal.

Solar makes sense, but only on energy efficient buildings.  This will require a big change for a country used to free energy.  How do you go from the biggest per capita carbon footprint in the world to a zero net energy future?  Stay tuned.